Optimistic Fan Forges Ahead: Debunking Myths and Settling Pessimistic Fan Down

With the first big game in the books - in the form of a loss to Utah Utes (#24) - the naysayers, haters, and those that like to barrow trouble are coming out of the woodwork to unleash their negativity upon Wolverine Nation. Judgement is being cast upon some obvious targets and the prognosis isn't good coming from Pessimistic Fan. However, I am here to tell the rest of you that there is nothing to fear. I saw enough from the Wolverines to actually make me feel good about some particular position groups that have been under fire of late. Although it is evident that the team has a lot of work to do, calling this start to the season a 'complete disaster' would be far-fetched drama. I don't want any part of it! Remember, I am Optimisitic Fan afterall.


Debunking Myths:

Myth #1: The O-line is a mess!

Lots of fans are harping on the O-line after that loss. Even some "analysts" have jabbed at them. I can't say it is without good reason when you look at the rushing stats; the line simply was not quite up to the task come game time. They played with too much tentativeness and not enough tenacity. Credit does need to be given in regards to who they were facing in the Utah front line. They are good every year and showed up again against the Wolverines. Everybody knows they led the nation in sacks last year and they didn't even get one against us. Couple that with the fact that our guys did settle down and actually got better in the second half. As a fan, albeit an often foolishly optimistic one, I feel we do have something to be hopeful about in the front line. I am at least willing to see what they do against Oregon State before casting too much judgement. The Beavers got all they cared to get from FCS opponent Weber State this past weekend in a 26-7 win. Needless to say to anybody in the know, it should be an easier assignment for the boys in the trenches this week. A huge increase in rushing production is expected.


Myth #2: We have no hope at quarterback!

QB Jake Rudock

I know what I saw last Thursday. I don't have to relive it again and again. Every other news outlet and blog is doing that right now. I will just say that if any of the five big negative plays (three INT's and two missed TD's) that our QB was guilty of making went our way, it's a completely different ballgame. It was that close. Before I start passing too much early judgement on Jake Rudock I will wait to see what happens in the games that we should win. The things that give me some real hope are the fact that Rudock did throw two TD's and threw for nearly 300 yards. He also kept his composure enough to lead a late scoring drive that put us within striking distance. I suppose one could say that if we would have gotten the ensuing onside kick we might be talking about a different ballgame as well. Any way you look at it, you did not see a team crumble and fold like we did so many times last year. This team believed it could win. Rudock never doubted himself and he kept fighting. That type of attitude will go a long way towards a successful season.

Myth #3: The defense looked shaky!

No, it really didn't. Utah had a few nice drives, but they were held to 17 points. By comparison, the best scoring defense in the nation last year (Clemson) only averaged 16 points allowed per game. They also held star running back Devontae Booker to 69 yards rushing. He has a total of 103 yards in two games against Michigan. That is very respectable and bodes well for the Wolverines. At any rate, most experts agree that the defense played good enough to beat Utah. Yeah, some turnovers would be nice, but beggars can't be too choosy and I'll take whatever that defense allows me right now.

Myth #4: Utah was an "average" opponent!

No, they are not. They are anything but average. They are one of the best programs in the Pac-12, period. They put a lot of players in the NFL. They are 11-1 in their last 12 bowl appearances. They have had two undefeated seasons in the last 20 years. They return 16 starters on a team that was Top 25 in 2014. They beat both UCLA and USC in SLC last year, and they will beat more good teams in 2015. Michigan has nothing to be ashamed of in regards to losing to a team like Utah, particularly in week one. While the likes of Florida and Clemson are opening up against New Mexico State and Wofford, the Wolverines faced anything but an average opponent in week one. Hell, it was no secret that the Utes were favored to win by a TD. At least Vegas knows what they are talking about!

Myth #5: Brady Hoke left the cupboard bare!

Poor Brady. He gets no credit for anything. While he wasn't putting the type of classes together that they were hauling in at Florida State and Alabama, he was no slouch on the recruiting trail by any means. Unfortunately, he will probably remain known more for the surge of decommitments and big whiffs on some top talent near the end of his regime rather than him being one of the best scouts of defensive talent in the Big Ten. His first class was thin at the top, but produced some gems in Desmond Morgan, Blake Countess, Brennen Beyer, and Frank Clark. His following two classes were ranked #6 (2012) and #4 (2013) respectively, and the bulk of the current two-deep is primarily made up from these two classes. Brady's last haul in 2014 had it's ups and downs. It finished ranked at #20, but only consisted of 17 players - the lowest number of recruits in the top 25! It's safe to say that we haven't even begun to see the talent from that class emerge yet. Overall, Hoke's classes averaged a #14 ranking over those four years, which puts it right in the mix with  the likes of Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Georgia, USC, Oklahoma, and even LSU in regards to talent recruited. I wouldn't sleep on Michigan's talent if I were you, Buckeye fan.

A Legitimately Bold, Fearless, and Maybe a Little Too Optimistic Prediction for the Utah Game

Michigan 21 Utah 16

There are a couple major reasons why Michigan will win this game tonight. While Utah has the clear and present capabilities to beat the Wolverines in the kicking game, Michigan has at least one clear advantage over the Utes in its defense. How good are they? Well, This D returns more than a dozen players with at least one start and several others with loads of quality playing time, and they ranked 7th nationally in yards allowed per game. By comparison, the Utes were not even ranked in the top 50 in that same category. The Wolverines kept the Utes' offense in check most of the game last year, only allowing 81 rushing yards and putting a TD on the board with a returned INT by Willie Henry. While Utah running back Davontae Booker will provide a solid challenge, it will take a monster game from him to really expose this unit. I for one am willing to bet that will not happen tonight. Just as much, QB Travis Wilson will have to be better than his 172 yards passing that he produced last year if they are really hoping to get Michigan's back against the wall.

The single-biggest issue for the team in last year's game was the sheer ineptitude of the quarterback. Neither guy (Devin Gardner/Shane Morris) could get a rhythm going and they left the defense hanging on a short field all day long. There was actually zero threat in the passing game which led to the Utes teeing up on the backs and holding them to 118 yards rushing. The two stats that really jump out at me from that game (besides the three points forced) are Devin Gardner's 27.3 QBR and the three INT's. I am confident that that will NOT happen under Harbaugh. I don't care who is under center, they will not puke up a game like that under his watch. Combine that with an O-line finally coming of age under Drevno and it would not surprise me to see three TD's on the board when it's all said and done. If we would have had just two TD's from the offense last year I would bet we win that game (just saying...).

The single most important factor here is the coaches themselves. This staff is much better than the one under Hoke. You will see a more disciplined Michigan team tonight, mark my words. You will also see better clock management and a more engaged sideline. I am not saying it will be mistake-free football. I'm just saying you won't see five turnovers in the stat sheet, unless it's on the defensive side of the ball.

Go Blue!